Euronext milling wheat is 31.8 percent higher than a year ago at EUR 248/mt, and 20.9 percent higher over three months. The Black Sea has historically handled about 30 percent of world wheat trade, and it is still not shipping normally. Rerouting solves the problem only partially, grain exports from both Ukraine and Russia have fallen, and the alternative routes are themselves being targeted. Ukraine is also sowing next season’s wheat crop into a moisture deficit.
Late September showed how sensitive the price is to diplomacy. Turkey is working with both sides on safe passage, the US has proposed a trilateral meeting in the UAE in October, and Euronext December wheat fell to EUR 236/mt from EUR 246/mt in a week. The logistics themselves are unchanged.
In our newly published Grains Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our analyst Gehrman Kosenkov and our AI forecast read wheat from here. It is the one report in the set with a fourth quarter of analyst view, running out to Q3 2027.
Download the Grains Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our Grains Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
The report covers wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, feed barley and paddy rice. For wheat, it answers:
- Will wheat prices rise or fall in Q4 2026?
- What is the Euronext milling wheat price forecast for 2027?
- How likely is a Black Sea deal, and what would it do to wheat prices?
- How much of the Black Sea disruption is already in the price?
- Could Ukraine’s wheat area shrink for the 2027 harvest?
- What would moving Ukrainian grain through Baltic ports add to logistics costs?
- Why were French soft wheat stocks cut for 2026/27?
- When does harvest pressure reach wheat prices in 2027?
- What is the wheat price outlook quarter by quarter to Q3 2027?
- Where do our analyst and the AI forecast disagree on wheat?
