Optimism that a solution for Black Sea grain shipping could be found is weighing on grains, and on wheat most of all. December Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt from €246/mt a week earlier. On CBOT, SRW winter wheat dropped to 675 cents per bushel from 727 cents two weeks ago, and HRW to 733 cents from 800.
The diplomacy has picked up. Turkey is engaging with both Ukraine and Russia to secure safe passage, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries are also involved. Russia confirmed it is reviewing the proposals while exploring alternatives, including routing through Arctic ports, abolishing grain export duties and buying grain for state storage. The US has proposed a trilateral meeting in the UAE in October.
The gap between the parties is still wide, though. Political positions remain far apart, attacks on ports and ships continue, and Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said there might be no deal in the coming months. Vesper’s analysis sees a low probability of an agreement. Prices could fall further on positive headlines such as a scheduled meeting, but with export supply lost, the fundamentals are bullish, and the expectation is a dip on optimism followed by a recovery and overall strong prices in the fourth quarter.
The supply that is getting through is shifting route. With wheat exports from the Black Sea restricted, France is loading vessels for Yemen, Egypt and Sudan, while traditional buyers of Black Sea grain are still hoping for a deal and extending their coverage cautiously. Ukraine’s grain stocks totaled 24.6 million tonnes on 1 September, 10 million more than a year earlier, according to official statistics cited by APK-Inform.
Corn came under the same pressure plus harvest selling. CBOT corn fell to 500 cents from 534 cents over two weeks, while Euronext corn rose to €276/mt before returning to €264/mt. Coceral cut its EU corn forecast to 48.6 million tonnes from 52.7 million in July, 14% below last year, after hot, dry weather damaged crops. November CBOT soybeans slipped to 1,293 cents from 1,320, while China left soybeans off its tariff-cut list after the Trump–Xi meeting and announced no new purchase commitments.
The full analysis has Vesper’s quarter-by-quarter outlook for wheat, corn, barley and soybeans.
