France’s agriculture ministry cut its 2026 corn crop forecast to 7.3 million tonnes from 8.1 million the month before, after heatwaves and drought. That is the lowest figure in ministry records going back to 1980. FranceAgriMer now expects French corn ending stocks in 2026/27 to fall to 1.1 million tonnes, the lowest since 1990/91 and 43% below last year, and says the number could be cut again later in the season.
Euronext corn futures jumped to new highs on that, helped by the temporary closure of the Danube’s Sulina Canal, which carries Ukrainian grain. CBOT corn moved the other way on a stronger dollar, improved US crop conditions and a bearish WASDE that raised both global production and ending stocks.
Euronext wheat futures rose too, and the driver there is Black Sea supply rather than weather. Russian wheat exports from July to September came to 7 million tonnes against 11.3 million a year earlier, according to Rusagrotrans. SovEcon cut its 2026/27 export forecast to 36.7 million tonnes from 46 million last season, and IKAR cut its own to 29 million from 43 million. Alternative routes are at full capacity and coming under attack. Jordan bought nothing in its milling wheat tender.
Barley prices followed wheat and corn higher, with the Black Sea disruption adding support since Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters.
Read the full global grains market analysis here.
