Euronext wheat futures for December fell about 8% in two weeks. News of a possible Black Sea deal drove prices lower, as did expectations of a meeting between Russia, Ukraine and the US in November. Stronger Russian exports in October and the use of the port of Murmansk also weighed. US wheat futures fell too.
The talks may not deliver. Russia’s deputy foreign minister said there are currently no prospects for reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and our analyst expects the November meeting may not yield tangible results. Given today’s relatively low prices, that could pose an upside risk, although bears may try to push prices lower ahead of the meeting.
Corn went the other way. Euronext corn prices rose about 3% on the week, while the EU crop monitoring service MARS lowered its average EU corn yield forecast to 9% below the five-year average. France’s corn harvest was 97% complete by 19 October. Our analyst thinks prices appear to have peaked and expects a correction as harvests progress, with lower EU output and slower Ukrainian exports keeping a floor under them.
Planting for 2027 is uneven. French farmers had sown 45% of the planned soft wheat area by 19 October, against 53% a year earlier, and Ukraine’s agriculture minister said wheat area may fall by 15% to 17% next year. In barley, the FAS USDA now sees Australian barley production at a second consecutive record of 17.7 million tonnes, and Australia’s harvest could weigh on prices this quarter.
Read the full grains market analysis here.
