European corn is where the heatwave bill is landing. The August Euronext contract jumped to EUR 236/mt from EUR 228/mt two weeks ago, a multi-year high, after French growers group AGPM warned production could fall about 30% this year. Heat damage and reduced plantings put the French crop on course for roughly 9.5 million tonnes, a 26-year low.
The stress is not confined to France. Drought is spreading across southern, central, and eastern Ukraine, affecting an estimated 30 to 40% of late crops, and heat has already caused premature leaf yellowing in some corn areas. In the US, CBOT corn climbed to 442 cents per bushel from 407 two weeks ago, helped by a quarterly USDA stocks figure below trade estimates and a NOAA forecast of hotter, drier weather across parts of the Corn Belt in late July.
Wheat is moving the other way. Euronext milling wheat eased to EUR 205/mt as the Northern Hemisphere harvest gathers pace. The French soft wheat crop is now expected at 31.5 to 32 million tonnes with good quality, and early Russian yields are up 29% year-on-year. Bullish corn and the EU heat are what is keeping wheat from falling further.
Soybeans jumped too: CBOT soybeans reached 1,197 cents per bushel from 1,109 two weeks ago after China’s state trader COFCO bought at least 300,000 tonnes of US beans and the same hot July forecast added weather risk.
Vesper’s full grains analysis lays out quarter-by-quarter outlooks for wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans, including where harvest pressure could cap the rally.
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