The settlement price for August 2024 rapeseed on MATIF rose from €485 ($527) per metric ton on May 20, 2024, to €489 ($531) per metric ton on May 27, 2024. The ICE US Canola price also saw an increase. Additionally, rapeseed prices in France, Germany, and Ukraine went up (see Figure 1). The Vesper West EU Forward Price Index for Crude Rapeseed Oil increased from €978 per metric ton on May 21, 2024, to €999 per metric ton on May 28, 2024 (FOB Dutch Mill/Extank, July).

Figure 1: French, German, and Ukrainian rapeseed prices (USD/mt)

The rapeseed market’s strength was bolstered by a robust bean complex and concerns over adverse weather in key rapeseed-producing regions:

In Western and Southern Australia, dry weather is threatening to significantly reduce oilseed yields. StoneX analysts predict that oilseed yields in these areas could be the weakest in years if the dry conditions persist. They estimate that Western and Southern Australia may only harvest 4.5 million tons of major oilseeds this year, compared to the usual 10 million tons.

In Ukraine, producers report that rapeseed crops in some farms within the Dnipropetrovska, Kharkivska, and Kirovohradska regions have suffered damage of up to 30-40% due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Frosts and a lack of precipitation in April and May in Ukraine, along with dry weather at the start of the sowing season in Australia, are the main factors supporting the rise in rapeseed and canola prices.

Due to this weather impact, MARS lowered its projection of the EU’s 2024 rapeseed yield from 3.26 t/ha forecast last month to 3.21 t/ha.

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