Crude sunflower oil prices for January to March delivery fell about 3% on the week, the sharpest move in the vegetable oils complex. The drop was likely driven by confirmation of a meeting between Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, which the market hopes will put Black Sea shipping safety on a path to resolution.
The supply damage is already visible. Since the Black Sea escalation began in midsummer, exports and crushing in the region have fallen significantly. In July to September, Ukraine produced 682,000 tonnes of sunflower oil against 909,000 tonnes a year earlier, and exported 552,000 tonnes against 1.11 million. Russian production fell to 1.18 million tonnes from 1.39 million, according to Rosstat. Our analyst is pessimistic about the talks and sees room for prices to rebound one to two weeks after the meeting if no agreement emerges that will hold.
The rest of the complex eased too. Bloomberg and Reuters polls point to Malaysian palm oil stocks rising by about 250,000 tonnes in October, despite 43% export growth, and BMD futures slid back to their October low. The rapeseed oil market followed CBOT soybeans lower while StatCan raised its Canadian canola ending stocks estimate. Olive oil supply looks ample, prices kept weakening on a good harvest outlook, and Tunisia has overtaken Spain in shipments to the US. Coconut oil rebounded slightly.
Read the full vegetable oils market analysis here.
