Two vessels are set to load more than 60,000 tonnes of wheat each in France for Saudi Arabia in the coming days, LSEG data showed. The loadings at Rouen and La Pallice would be the first bulk shipments of French wheat to Saudi Arabia since 2020. That short-term demand for French grain has helped Euronext milling wheat futures offset pressure from the diplomatic push to end the conflict in Ukraine, with the first Russia-Ukraine peace talks since February taking place this week.
The Black Sea is still a constraint. Attacks on alternative ports continue, the Baltic states are making it harder to ship Russian wheat through their ports, and Sovecon cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 0.7 million tonnes to 36 million, assuming a maritime truce is unlikely before spring 2027. Egypt imported nearly 42% less wheat in October than a year earlier, under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising international prices.
In its November WASDE, the USDA raised global wheat production by 5.12 million tonnes and ending stocks by 4.78 million tonnes. Corn went the other way: the agency cut its US yield estimate and lowered 2026/27 corn ending stocks below the average analyst estimate.
Vesper doubts this week’s talks in the UAE will bring a breakthrough, and sees room for wheat to rise within one to two weeks if no tangible progress is announced.
Read the full grains market analysis here.
