US egg exports fell a little short of expectations in August but still came in 94% above the same month last year. Cumulative shipments of table egg-type eggs through August reached 2.08 billion on a shell egg equivalent basis, 36% ahead of the 2025 pace, and LEAP Market Analytics (LMA) says this will almost certainly be the biggest export year since 2021 by a comfortable margin.
The destinations have shifted. Canada has been the top foreign market this year, but cumulative shipments there are running 34% behind 2025, while shipments to Mexico, the number two destination, are 41% ahead. With fewer trade barriers, competitive prices and a weak dollar supporting importers, LMA is somewhat bullish on export prospects for next year, while targeting a moderation in growth after such large gains.
Exports can only clear so much
The export share of shell egg production will likely land between 3.5% and 4.0% for the third quarter, against 2.2% a year earlier. That removes around 1.5% more supply from the domestic market than last year. Even so, domestic per capita availability of shell eggs is projected up at least 4.0% in the quarter, double the 2.0% increase seen in the first half of 2026.
Total US table egg production is projected 5.7% higher in the third quarter, and with less of it going to processing, shell egg production is expected up 8.0%. Wholesale demand has also stayed weaker than expected. LMA finds it hard to look at the supply side without coming away bearish.
What could change in 2027
LMA reads the wide gap between wholesale and retail demand as room for improvement next year. Its forecast assumes only a modest demand recovery, and that alone would lift wholesale prices for large white grade A shell eggs by at least 30% from current-year projections.
On feed, USDA-NASS’s October Crop Production report put the US corn harvest at an average of 181.2 bushels per acre. Together with the quarterly Grain Stocks report a week earlier, that swung new-crop carryout projections from around 1.4 or 1.5 billion bushels to 1.8 or 1.9 billion in two weeks, which LMA calls welcome news for grain buyers. The full analysis includes LMA’s export, supply and demand charts.
