The post-Easter global egg market is moving in two opposite directions.
US market in oversupply
In the United States, supply has rebuilt strongly after last year’s HPAI outbreak. No new HPAI cases have been confirmed in laying hen flocks over the past two weeks. Accelerated pullet placements last summer have translated into a fully restocked national flock, and egg stocks are running 20% above last year’s level.
With seasonal demand set to weaken further into spring and summer, industry egg prices have fallen below production cost. Wholesale prices have moved sharply lower from their peak. Retail consumer prices are running around 60% below Easter 2025 levels.
Many foodservice buyers and manufacturers that switched to liquid and processed egg products during the 2024 to 2025 price crisis have not switched back. That structural shift has reduced part of the demand base for shell eggs.
Europe remains supply-constrained
In Europe, the post-holiday correction is underway but shallow. Disease losses across Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands have reduced production enough to maintain a floor under prices even as seasonal demand fades.
Poland has already lost over 8.8 million birds to disease in 2026, close to one-fifth of the national laying hen population at the start of last year. The Netherlands has recorded 45 HPAI outbreaks this season. Germany is contending with Newcastle Disease, with 18 outbreaks in Brandenburg and 16 in Bavaria, laying hen farms particularly affected. The widening spread of NCD is creating a secondary problem, with Poland and Germany buying NCD vaccines in large volumes and leaving other countries with limited access.
Trade flows respond
The United States has begun exporting egg products to Europe, with whole egg powder moving to Denmark, egg white powder to Italy, Spain, and Denmark, and liquid egg white to Ireland. Volumes are modest, and logistical constraints, including transport conditions and packaging compatibility, limit the potential for larger shell egg exports.
Outlook
The US market is in oversupply with no immediate catalyst to reverse direction, short of a return of HPAI in commercial layer flocks. The European market should gradually normalise if disease activity slows as temperatures rise, though new laying hens take 16 to 18 weeks to reach production, meaning meaningful flock rebuilding from recent cullings will not show up in supply before late summer at the earliest.
For the full egg market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2893