Coffee futures basis the most active December contract fell 9.8 cents from Monday to Monday, closing at 311.50 US cents per pound. Sucafina had called a correction into the 310 to 320 range by the end of the week, and that is where it landed.
The mechanism is straightforward. Higher prices over the previous two weeks, combined with a Brazilian harvest that is winding down, brought differentials in Brazil to levels attractive enough for exporters to sell. More exporter buying means more futures hedging, and that hedging brings pressure on the market.
For buyers at destination the more useful part is what is happening physically. Brazilian export flows are starting to improve, which lightens the outlook on near-term coffee supply in Europe. Sucafina reads that as good news for buyers at destination, and it is a change from the tightness that has framed most of this year.
The offset sits in Central America. Sucafina has trimmed its availability outlook for the coming 2026/27 crop slightly on persistently hot and dry weather in Honduras and Guatemala. That is why the house view is for the market to find some support around $3 per pound for the week rather than keep sliding, establishing a new $3.00 to $3.10 range.
