EU chicken prices eased for a third consecutive week, with the EU27 broiler average at €187/100kg in week 40, down 0.5% on the week. That is still well above the 10-year average but clearly below the record highs of 2025. Vesper’s analysis puts the pullback down to supply: EU production has set repeated 15-year records in recent months, Polish prices dropped below their 10-year average in week 32, and seasonally softer consumption leaves little room to absorb the extra volume.
Newcastle disease spreads
Disease risk is building at the same time. Europe has reported 157 Newcastle disease outbreaks so far in 2026, up from 153 a week earlier and the highest count in 20 years. Germany (55), Poland (54) and Spain (40) account for most of them, and Hungary (8) is now growing quickly.
The price impact depends on which farms are hit. Most of Poland’s ongoing cases are on laying-hen farms, so Vesper expects no significant effect on broiler prices from there. Spain is different: 34 of its 40 outbreaks are still open, including 23 broiler farms in Castilla y León and three in the Comunitat Valenciana, which now faces a second wave. Hungary’s eight outbreaks are all in Bács-Kiskun, one of its main poultry regions, making it the fastest-growing Newcastle disease cluster in the EU. Vesper expects both to reduce supply from those regions.
Avian influenza has been quieter this year, with no new poultry farm outbreaks this week. Wild-bird detections in the EU and UK jumped from one to three a week to 12 in the last week of September, however, and more farm outbreaks are expected as migration continues. A new EU import ban on Brazilian poultry will also cut imports further.
The quarter ahead
On balance, Vesper’s analysis expects prices to keep easing through the fourth quarter before steadying in the first quarter of 2027, with elevated energy costs keeping them above their 10-year average. The full analysis has the outbreak detail by country and the trade outlook for Brazil, Thailand and the US.
