Coffee futures lost about 5.5% over the week to 9 November on the most active March contract, and the drop was steeper still for anyone following the December contract once the roll is counted. Sucafina says expectations of a flood of Brazilian coffee arriving at destination continue to weigh on the market. Farmer selling picked up pace after Brazil’s elections and the weaker real, and conditions for the 2027/28 crop still look good, easing fears of a worst-case El Niño drought.
Central America looks very different. Its 2026/27 harvest is entering the main season, and extended drought and heat have clearly hurt yields there. Sucafina expects the damage to carry into the following crop too, as the trees recover. That makes it increasingly unlikely that Central American arabica will flood onto the exchange the way it did last year.
For now, though, Brazil sets the direction. Sucafina sees a key support level just below where futures closed, and warns that a break beneath it would likely set off another wave of selling.
Read the full coffee market analysis here.
