Coffee futures gave back a week of gains. The most active December arabica contract rallied to a high of $3.08 a pound on Wednesday, then fell to a low of $2.83 and finished Monday at $2.906, down 13.85 cents on the week, according to Sucafina’s latest weekly report. That was broadly the move Sucafina had expected: a test toward $3.10, then a wait for new gradings or a better-than-expected September export figure from Brazil.
The exports came in slightly weak, with Brazilian arabica shipments just below 3 million bags for September. The bigger development was political. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, and the Brazilian real strengthened sharply.
Why the currency matters to farmers
Sucafina puts the real’s move from 5.2 to 4.95 per US dollar in coffee terms: for a Brazilian farmer, it is the equivalent of futures rising from $2.90 to $3.04 a pound. With more than half of the 2026/27 crop still in farmers’ hands, Sucafina expects a better economic outlook, as farmers see it, to encourage more holding.
The runoff is set for 25 October, and Sucafina notes the odds already show an 80% chance in Bolsonaro’s favor, with room for the real to strengthen further if he is confirmed. For this week, Sucafina expects coffee to trade between $2.90 and $3.00 a pound while the market waits for news on Brazilian coffee arriving in Europe.
