US chicken exports went against the usual seasonal pullback in September, reaching 601 million pounds. That was nearly 11% more than a year earlier and the highest monthly total of 2026. Exports for January to September are running 1.8% ahead of last year, even though shipments to each of the top five destinations, Mexico, Cuba, Taiwan, Canada and the Philippines, are down.
The outlook for 2027 is less clear. The dollar has climbed sharply against the Brazilian real since Brazil’s presidential election, which LEAP Market Analytics says puts US poultry exporters at a significant disadvantage to their Brazilian competitors. On the other side, the US midterms gave Democrats a sizable advantage in Congress, and LEAP thinks the next Congress could limit the president’s use of tariffs, which might help thaw relations with key trading partners.
LEAP expects Brazilian competition to severely restrict US export growth next year, but it does not think an overly bearish view is warranted. With production cuts expected, domestic per capita availability should fall by 1.0% to 1.5% in 2027. Demand is already strong for dark cuts: seasonally adjusted chicken leg quarter demand has been running around 15% above its 1992 to 2024 baseline, and LEAP expects the consumer “flight to value” to keep favoring dark cuts next year.
Read the full US broiler market analysis here.
