Coffee futures climbed 4 cents on the week to settle at $3.179 a pound on the most active December contract, according to Sucafina’s latest market report. The move came a week later than Sucafina had expected when it called for a rally toward $3.25, but the underlying driver hasn’t changed: a widening gap between how tight nearby supply looks and how large the incoming Brazilian crop actually is.
That tightness shows up clearest in the futures spread. The premium for the nearby contract over the December position has kept climbing and now sits at 31 cents, a sign that cheap, ICE-certified Arabica stocks are scarce: certified stocks have fallen below 250,000 bags. Unless fresh Brazilian coffee replenishes those certified stocks, Sucafina expects the spread to keep behaving the same way.
The counterweight is Brazil’s crop itself. The Arabica harvest is estimated at 90% complete, essentially caught up to its seasonal pace, with what’s left mostly lower-quality cherries that fell to the ground. That still leaves Brazilian farmers holding a large volume of coffee they haven’t sold yet, and the current export pace suggests only the bare minimum is being booked to cover roasters’ near-term needs. If farmers choose to price that unsold coffee by selling futures, the resulting selling pressure would work against any rally attempt.
Sucafina expects the nearby tightness to stop driving the December contract from here, and calls for futures to head lower this week, potentially settling below $3.10 a pound. For buyers, the setup is a reminder that a tight-looking spread and a soft outright price can coexist when a large, slow-to-sell crop sits behind it.
