China set to overtake Brazil as world’s top chicken meat producer in 2026

The global poultry trade is approaching a structural shift. USDA forecast data points to a 5% increase in Chinese poultry production in 2026, which would push China past Brazil to become the world’s largest chicken meat producer.

Chinese chicken meat exports are also forecast to rise significantly during the year, while imports are expected to fall. The combination of higher domestic output and stronger export ambitions is set to increase competition for established exporters, particularly Thailand and the European Union.

Brazil continues to expand

Brazil registered a record 14.3 million tons of chicken meat production last year according to IBGE data, up 4.2% year on year, the largest annual increase since 2021. Q4 2025 output reached 3.65 million tons, the highest quarterly figure in the IBGE series, up 1.5% quarter on quarter and 8% above Q4 2024. A favourable soybean crop continues to soften production costs.

Thailand already feeling the pressure

Export volumes from Thailand are running lower than February 2025, possibly linked to increased Chinese competition. With both China and Brazil rapidly increasing production volumes, less space is being left for Thai exporters.

Short-term signals

Brazilian prices have increased 5 to 7% in recent weeks, driven by higher transport costs for processors as oil prices have pushed freight rates higher. Ocean freight to Europe has also risen over the past weeks. Despite higher slaughter numbers, Brazilian prices have not come down.

The European market remains under pressure. Dutch and Belgian broiler prices have stayed stable to slightly softer, while cut prices continue to decline.

Outlook

With both China and Brazil increasing production volumes, global supply is set to grow. For buyers, the rebalancing of export market share between major producers is likely to reshape sourcing strategies through the second half of 2026.


Read the full poultry market report here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2894?commodity=meat-and-poultry