European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, according to data released by the European Cocoa Association. The figure compares with 353,522 mt processed during the same period in 2025 and came in worse than a Bloomberg survey that had anticipated a 6% year on year drop.
The magnitude of the drop reinforces the picture of demand destruction that has been building through 2025, with record cocoa prices continuing to pressure chocolate manufacturers. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte. Ltd., said the year on year decline “confirms that demand destruction remains firmly in play.”
Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest grinder and chocolate producer, echoed the picture in its first-half results. Sales came in at CHF 6.75 billion against a CHF 6.96 billion consensus, and the company now expects profit to fall this year, reversing an earlier outlook for improvement. Sales volume declined 6.9% for the half, with management pointing to “the unique speed of the market decrease combined with a competitive overcapacity market, volume declines and supply disruption.” Full-year volume guidance was set at -1% to -3%.
The picture outside Europe looks different. Asian grindings rose 5.2% year on year to 223,503 mt in Q1, against a Bloomberg survey that had predicted a 6.7% drop. Malaysian grindings were up 8.7%, while Brazil and North America both registered modest declines.
Cocoa futures have softened in response. London July contracts were down GBP 15 or 0.6% versus 10 April, and New York July contracts fell USD 47 or 1.4% over the same period. According to Martijn Bron at Sucafina, given the high prices consumers still face, material demand recovery should not be expected before the second half of 2026, and possibly not before the first half of 2027.
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