The July ICE coffee contract closed the week 3.2 cents lower at 282.3 US cents/lb, despite a fresh wave of speculative buying. Speculators added 1,645 lots to their net long position over the week, a 9.9% increase, according to Sucafina. The broader soft commodities complex took in $2.9 billion of net inflows and grains pulled in another $8.7 billion, with El Niño announcements drawing money into the space.
The flow wasn’t enough to push coffee out of its trading range. Futures dipped to a low of 271 cents before finding support from a reduction in ICE-certified inventories, then drifted back toward the middle of the range. The pattern fits a market where speculative interest is real but capped by physical reality.
That physical reality is Brazil’s selling pace. Producer selling for the 2026/27 crop is running massively behind schedule, and Sucafina expects that backlog to weigh on any upside attempt as the harvest picks up. Producers who haven’t priced into the rally will be looking to catch up, which limits how high futures can run.
Sucafina sees prices testing the bottom of the range again this week, at 270-275 US cents/lb.