The US peanut market has reversed in recent weeks. The concern has shifted from oversupply to whether growers will be able to plant, how many acres they will commit, and what the weather will deliver.

Cotton’s pull on acreage

Cotton December ’26 has climbed at least 18% and breached the 80 cent barrier. The move is pulling acres away from peanuts, with growers actively making planting decisions between the two crops. The USDA’s March projection of a 14.3% reduction in peanut acres now looks conservative, and industry views point to a possible decline of 20% or more if cotton continues higher.

Drought deepens in the Southeast

The drought across the Southeast has worsened. Virginia and the Carolinas are very dry. Arkansas is dry, although most of its acreage is irrigated. Georgia has battled fires and very low humidity. Some chances of rain are in the forecast, and the May to July outlook continues to call for above-average precipitation, but the planting window is closing.

Shellers have largely withdrawn from the new crop market. The few willing to quote small quantities are now around 53 to 54 cents, which is 5 cents higher than a couple of weeks ago. Current crop is still available at a small premium, but offers are dwindling as shellers prefer to retain known supply until new crop visibility improves. Redskin kernel prices have moved $0.05 to $0.06 higher in recent weeks and now sit in the low to mid $0.50s.

’25 crop carryover lower than first thought

Carryover stocks of ’25 crop peanuts are likely to come in lower than the USDA’s projected 1.4 million tons. A more realistic expectation is around 1.2 to 1.25 million tons.

China steps in

Export figures are showing the impact of recent Chinese buying. The US exported 54,792 mt of peanuts in February, up 49% year on year, with shipments to China up 525% to 26,054 mt. Other destinations were softer over the same period. Year to date through February, US exports are down 5%, although the season is now expected to finish 6 to 7% higher.

Argentina and Brazil

Argentina is starting to harvest, with drier weather forecast in the short term. Plantings were down 25 to 26% this season, and good weather will be needed to ensure sufficient supply of quality peanuts. Prices have risen around 10%, with 40/50 and 38/42 blanched trading around $1500 to $1550 CFR Rotterdam. Buyers, who appear well covered through year end, have been reluctant to pay higher levels.

Brazil’s harvest is 80 to 90% complete. Yields and quality are good, with some isolated problems. Brazilian peanut exports were strong in March, with 19,547 mt shipped, up 21% year on year. Peanut oil exports were down 53% in March, but Q1 totals were broadly in line with last year.

China and South Africa

Chinese peanut futures have remained stable at around RMB 8,104, with forward months above RMB 8,400. Domestic supply remains sufficient and crushing plants have reduced or stopped accepting crushing material. Exports remain dull due to a premium over other origins and a strong currency. New planting is starting and the area is generally expected to expand slightly, although a sharp increase is unlikely after three consecutive years of growth in northeast China.

South Africa’s official crop estimate stands at 69,000 tons, but heavy rainfall and ongoing wet conditions have pushed crop loss estimates to 10% with harvest delayed. Many in the trade now think the crop will come in below 60,000 tons, requiring more imports, with concerns over quality and aflatoxin.


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