Cartonboard demand grew in every region EMGE tracks in May, a reversal for a market that had mostly been struggling through the year. Western Europe’s demand rose 3% against a year-to-date average of minus 5%, with operating ratios in the mid-80% range and prices on a rising trend. It’s a striking turn for a region that had been running well behind the prior year all season.
North America, where most of this year’s football World Cup took place, saw demand grow 4% and production climb even faster, despite both metrics running flat to negative for the year to date. EMGE flags one possible explanation without settling on it: orders may have been placed in May for virgin-fibre cartonboard ahead of price increases that took effect in July, though that timing would more naturally show up in June’s data than May’s. Whether the World Cup itself moved demand, or whether retailers simply overestimated it and pulled back the following month, is a question EMGE says the data can’t yet answer.
The clearest growth came from China. “Big Asia” demand has been climbing for a while, but May was a genuine standout, driven by production increases in China after Shandong Chenming restarted more than a million tonnes a year of capacity in March. Some of that apparent demand may still be sitting in mill warehouses rather than reaching end buyers, since EMGE’s model can’t track inventory movements on a monthly basis, but rising prices across the region suggest real orders are following the added supply.
Containerboard told a narrower story. Global demand grew almost 2% in May, with Western Europe the only region in decline even as its kraftliner prices kept climbing, an unusual combination of falling volume and rising price that EMGE says isn’t yet explained. North America rebounded into growth ahead of fresh price rises in June, and Big Asia continued its steady expansion, absorbing some of the region’s newly added capacity without much change to operating ratios.
