Regional paperboard markets moved in different directions through the spring, according to the latest monthly data from EMGE. There was no single global trend in March. Western Europe stayed weak, North America showed early signs of recovery, and Asian demand kept growing.
In cartonboard, overall demand extended a five-month growth streak in March, but the regional picture was mixed. Western European demand fell heavily again, with no clear sign of a turn. Even so, prices rose in Mainland Europe in April and in the UK in May, which EMGE reads as a possible sign that buyers built inventories ahead of those increases. North America became harder to call after industry demand data were revised down, now showing a moderate decline in the first quarter. In “Big Asia,” demand kept growing strongly and prices have generally continued higher, despite a brief downward blip.
Containerboard told a similar regional story around flat global demand. Western European demand fell 7% in March and operating rates kept slipping. North America was weak too, down 5%, but the declines have eased since bottoming out in January. Production has followed the same path, operating ratios have risen steadily, and the earlier oversupply is fading. Mills there pushed for price rises in June. In Asia, demand and production both grew again, operating rates edged up, and prices rose in May.
The operating ratios capture the divergence. In March, cartonboard ran at 78% in Western Europe, 82% in North America, 76% in China, Japan and Korea, and 74% in the rest of the world. Containerboard ran tighter: 88% in Western Europe, 90% in North America, 77% across China, Japan and Korea, and 84% elsewhere.
For buyers, the point is that there is no single paperboard market to read right now. The direction depends on the region, and North America looks tighter than Western Europe heading into the second half.
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