Tree nut buyers are holding their nerve into the second half of 2026, keeping coverage short across both cashews and macadamias even as the supply picture shifts.
Macadamia crop estimates trimmed on both major origins
On macadamias, crop estimates have been trimmed on both major origins. The Australian Macadamia Society cut its 2026 forecast to 56,888 tonnes from 59,080 tonnes, following an earlier reduction in the South African crop to 95,000 tonnes. Both countries are still set to out-produce last year. Attention has turned to China, where an exceptionally wet spell in Guangxi and limited sunshine are expected to weigh on crop development, while visibility on Yunnan, the country’s largest growing region, stays thin. A change in trade terms has also reopened the door for Kenyan nut-in-shell exports into China, though whether Chinese buyers take up the lower grades is still an open question.
According to Global Trading, macadamia prices have steadied after a softer start to the year, and the nut remains competitively priced against other tree nuts. That matters heading into an expected off-year for the US pistachio crop, and it gives product developers a relatively stable option to work with.
Cashews wind down as the season closes
Cashews are further along in their cycle. Northern hemisphere supply is winding down, with the last shipments due through July and August. Global Trading notes total world supply is running below last season but still tracks as the second largest on record, helped by Ivory Coast and Cambodia. The next crop, out of the southern hemisphere, won’t arrive until October or November. Quality has slipped, lifting processing costs, and much of the crop sits with well-financed traders in no rush to sell.
Demand on both sides stays hand-to-mouth. Buyers are covering three to four months out and adjusting as they go, wary of consumer demand amid higher energy costs. Global Trading’s steer on cashews is to stay covered through the end of Q1 2027, with buying windows likely to open as processors sell stock to raise finance.
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