Container spot rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe rose 11% this week. Rates to the Mediterranean were up 20%. The move is driven by carriers pushing new Freight All Kinds rates and peak season surcharges well ahead of the traditional summer window, a deliberate response to ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the longer transit times that come with alternative routing.
Carriers are reinforcing the push by tightening available capacity. The Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) has already cut the notice period for seasonal sailing cancellations from 12 weeks down to 6 to 8 weeks, giving lines significantly more flexibility to pull space fast. Reports of rolled cargo at several Asian loading ports are beginning to emerge. MSC has announced new rate levels from June 1.
The Hormuz picture is nuanced. Iran has granted a group of Chinese vessels permission to transit the strait following direct negotiations between Beijing and Tehran, coinciding with President Trump’s state visit to China. Trump has indicated China is willing to help broker a full reopening. For standard commercial shipping, however, the strait remains effectively closed. As recently as May 14, UKMTO reported another commercial vessel being boarded and diverted into Iranian waters.
Analysts caution that the current capacity crunch is largely supply-driven rather than a genuine surge in cargo volumes. If inflation continues to weigh on consumer spending, peak season demand could fall short of what carriers are pricing in.
Port delays remain elevated. Rotterdam is averaging around 4 days; Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven are around 2 days each.
Shypple’s full update covers capacity management, the Dutch truck toll update, and what to book ahead of summer: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3000