Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than in 2026, and that moves every deadline for Asia to Europe cargo forward. Factories close in stages: some stop a week before the holiday, some in southern China up to three weeks before, and many only return to full output after the Lantern Festival on 20 February. Shypple says cargo that has to be in Europe before the holiday should leave China in mid to late December, with around 20 January as the hard cut-off for departures.
The run-up starts on a network that is already stretched. Four typhoons hit East Asia in seven weeks, and Drewry says a network needs about five weeks to recover, so delays could run into the pre-holiday rush. Shypple expects slight upward pressure on rates in December and January as shippers move cargo early.
November itself looks flat. Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, COSCO and CMA CGM have announced increases from 15 November, and carriers are canceling sailings, but the Christmas stock has shipped and there is open space at origin in China. Drewry’s Shanghai to Rotterdam index rose just 1% in the week to 29 October. Carriers announced the same kind of increases in October, and rates fell in the second half of that month.
The EU Deforestation Regulation adds another deadline. From 30 December it applies to large and medium-sized companies importing coffee, cocoa, soy, palm oil, cattle, wood and rubber, so shipments that arrive at the end of December leave origin in November.
Read the full freight market analysis here.
