Summer is normally cheese’s slow season, with trade thinning out across the board. This year is running only a little truer to that pattern than most: demand through July has stayed notably strong, prices are drifting sideways to higher rather than lower, and larger industrial buyers are already locking in cheese volumes for the fourth quarter.
Cheddar remains the cheapest of the major cheeses in Europe, still working through a surplus built up during the spring milk flush, when abundant cheap milk pushed producers into heavy Cheddar output. That extra production has already paused now that spot milk has firmed, and Cheddar’s relative ease of storage means less of the surplus needs to hit the spot market at once. US Cheddar trades at a meaningful discount to European levels, competitive enough to hold its export position against both Europe and New Zealand on the back of strong domestic supply.
Emmental has moved back into a premium over other cheeses, though a smaller one than its historical norm, as the stock built up during Q2’s cheap-milk production window is still working its way down. Gouda is holding up better than usual for this time of year: producers have plenty of milk but are reluctant to commit forward volume without a premium attached, which is pushing large industrial buyers to lock in bigger Q4 commitments, and in some cases into the first quarter of next year. Mozzarella remains the priciest cheese in the mix on both sides of the Atlantic, driven by its usual seasonal summer demand spike, with European production running at full capacity and US prices following the European market higher at a discount.
The common thread through Q4 is a split in buyer conviction: some are comfortable locking in cheese volumes at today’s forward premium, while traders remain reluctant to go short against those offers, unconvinced the premium is high enough yet. Where prices land through the rest of the year depends largely on how much milk actually shows up, which for now still looks like plenty.
This news article is part of a broader Vesper market analysis on the cheese market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3300
