ofi’s June Global Nuts Market & Crop Update points the same direction across most of the nut complex: tighter.
Pistachios carry the headline number. Industry expectations point to a roughly 50% smaller 2026 US crop, while reduced production in Turkey and Iran limits global supply. Shipments are still running strong, up 19.8% year-to-date, helped by export diversification away from China.
Almonds are closing the crop year firm. The industry is 84.8% sold on total supply versus a five-year average of 83.8%, May sales jumped 55.9% year-on-year, and export shipments rebounded, led by Western Europe and Turkey. Domestic demand remains the weak spot, down 13.6% year-to-date.
Cashews face a quality problem: outturns are trending 2.0 to 2.5 lbs lower than 2025 across major origins, which is likely to constrain premium-grade kernel supply in the second half. Hazelnuts wait on Turkey’s TMO support price, expected late July, with support prices for other crops up 20 to 35% feeding expectations of a similar rise. Peanuts add the acreage shock: USDA now puts US plantings down 21.8%.
Macadamias are the outlier, with a strong 2026 recovery expected across South Africa, Australia, and Kenya, and China cutting its import duty on South African product from 12% to zero.
The full update carries shipment data, crop estimates, and the bullish and bearish case for each nut.
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