USDA-NASS’s latest Chickens and Eggs report reinforced what the US poultry market has been signalling for a few months: broiler industry expansion is slowing.
Broiler-type pullet chicks hatched for US placement in September came to 8.81 million, up just 0.5% on last year. That brought the third-quarter total to nearly 25.6 million, a 1.1% increase, after output grew 5.0% in the first half of 2026. Broiler-type layer inventories slipped slightly during September but held just above 61 million head on 1 October, exactly 2.0% up on the same date last year, and LEAP Market Analytics reads that flock as young and productive.
What has changed is productivity. The average number of broiler chicks hatched per layer in September fell 1.5% year on year, a third consecutive monthly decline, though the January to September average is still 1.2% ahead of last year’s pace. After gains of 4.4% in 2024 and 3.0% last year, LEAP had expected the low-hanging fruit to run out eventually. The surprise is how quickly, and that deficits above 1% have already appeared.
Total broiler chicks hatched in September rose only 0.3%. LEAP views the remaining growth signals as fleeting and now expects ready-to-cook production to ease back slightly in 2027, which would be the first full-year decline since 2012. Per capita availability should fall more noticeably, by around 0.5%.
Read the full US broiler market analysis here.
