The US wholesale breast meat market perked up slightly over the past week. LEAP Market Analytics stresses how unusual that is: boneless skinless breast meat rarely catches a bid, even a small one, between mid-September and mid-November.
Supply growth is slowing. Broiler chick placements totaled 188.3 million in the week to 24 October, the smallest weekly total of 2026, though still 0.4% above the same week last year. LEAP describes the industry as downshifting, but expects it to take at least a couple more months before head counts consistently track below last year. Productivity is a big reason the expansion held up so long: chicks hatched per layer and livability are both near record highs, which LEAP estimates adds at least 350 to 400 million broilers to this year’s slaughter.
Inventories also lean supportive. Frozen breast meat stocks on 30 September were 7.8% below a year earlier and slightly above the five-year average, which LEAP considers snug once five years of higher production are taken into account. Breast meat has also been undervalued against thigh meat, retailers find it easier to feature, and beef prices remain elevated by comparison.
At retail, breast meat averaged its highest level of 2026 in September, up less than 1% on a year earlier.
Read the full broiler market analysis here.
