USDA’s Cold Storage report put US butter stocks at 295.7 million pounds at the end of September, 16.5% above a year earlier. The pace behind that number matters more than the number itself.
Stocks normally peak in late spring and draw down through autumn as holiday baking demand picks up. That is happening, much more slowly. Between the end of July and the end of September, 36.7 million pounds left US warehouses, against 77.6 million last year, 49.5 million in 2024 and 62.7 million in 2023. Stocks were effectively level with last year at the end of July; two months later the gap had grown to 41.8 million pounds.
The price context is what makes it striking. Last autumn’s heavy draw came while CME spot butter fell week after week, so buyers took cheaper product as it arrived. This year the cut had already happened first, butter prices sit below last year’s, and stocks still come down at half the speed. With US milk output up 2.6% in September, there is no shortage of cream for the churns.
If the rest of the year follows last year’s September to December draw, the US finishes 2026 with roughly 230 million pounds in storage, 22% more than last December. Even 2024’s faster pace would leave about 207 million.
Cheese stocks fell about as much as last year, but the mix shifted: American-style stocks dropped more than twice last September’s amount and sit 1.6% below a year ago, while other cheeses built further, 7.7% higher.
Read the full US dairy market analysis here.
