WPC80 prices in Europe have fallen far enough to sit level with MPC85, and that turns reformulation around. When the price gap was massive, buyers quickly found alternatives to whey protein. Now there is no price reason left to choose milk protein over whey, and the MPC85 market has started to soften as sellers become less firm on offers. Most MPC85 producers are sold out, so it is falling more slowly, but Q1 demand looks thinner.
Two weeks ago the weakness was mostly confined to WPC80. Now it is dragging the rest of the whey market down. With the year end in sight, producers are pushing to sell, some end users who covered at higher prices are selling product back, and buyers ask for Q1 offers without committing. Spot availability in Eastern Europe is high, and European WPC80 now trades below US product. Commodity-grade whey protein isolate is falling at a similar pace, while specific WPI grades hold up better.
The sweet whey powder market held up longer, but European prices are starting to ease as sellers move volumes before year end. CME dry whey prices have come down from their record, though they still sit at the high end of this year’s range, and US exports remain strong, with 88% of US whey powder production shipped abroad in August.
The analysis does not see a bottom for WPC80 yet. The last Q4 and Q1 needs will have to be bought soon, but buyers will delay that as long as they can.
Read the full whey market analysis here.
