Cheese fundamentals have not moved. Supply is stable to slightly up, demand is stable at best, and that is why cheese sits where it does. None of it stops the spot market.
Over the past few weeks prices jumped on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, Mozzarella and Gouda became much harder to source. On the CME Spot Call, Cheddar blocks rose roughly 18% in under a week. Both moves came from buyers caught short: in the US after two Cheddar recalls sent them looking for replacement product, in Europe after buyers who had counted on cheap Q4 Mozzarella found it did not arrive.
Europe’s firmness is really a milk question. Cheese is seasonally shorter at the start of Q4, but cream and skimmed milk concentrate have also been paying better than cheese. Producers made less cheese and sold more liquids, the opposite of what buyers expecting more milk to mean more cheese had assumed. Emmental prices have followed the complex up without leading it, and the Cheddar market has lagged, with availability tighter but most demand already covered.
Mozzarella went from leading the market down to leading it up inside a month, with little left on spot and producers holding back forward sales. The US is a different case: production growth keeps plenty available, and with stocks that high the rally looks hard to sustain.
Read the full cheese market analysis here.
