The US wholesale beef complex is about as mixed as it gets. The choice cutout is leaning lower without being on the defensive, the short plate is the only primal that is clearly languishing, and ribs and chucks are the only primals comfortably above last year. Supply is supportive, according to LEAP Market Analytics (LMA), while demand is a mixed bag and, on a seasonal basis, decidedly negative at this point in the calendar.
Rounds as the signal
LMA is watching the beef round market closely. After adjusting for seasonality, wholesale demand for rounds has fallen to its lowest point since late 2024, yet the category looks undervalued against the rest of the complex, and LMA doubts demand will erode much further. Top inside rounds are trending lower but should hold a floor through the fourth quarter.
LMA treats the round as a reasonable proxy for the whole wholesale complex: demand has already softened a lot and is unlikely to recover soon, but it does not look ripe for a collapse either. The round primal is projected up 3% this year, consistent with a 4% to 5% rise in the choice cutout. LMA projects both to decline between 5% and 10% next year.
Cattle and the retail shelf
That moderately bearish view should carry upstream. Cattle feeders are deep in the red, and LMA is reasonably confident calling both fed and feeder cattle prices mostly lower through year-end and possibly into January. In LMA’s view, traders are not pricing in enough of that near-term downside, while looking too conservative about where cattle could trade next summer.
At retail, Bureau of Labor Statistics data put composite choice beef prices at $9.94 a pound in September, the lowest monthly average since January and only 0.2% above last September. LMA reads the last two months as retailers discounting to keep shoppers engaged. LMA sees chicken as the category best placed to take share: its average retail price has fallen from above 30% of beef’s in 2023 to around 22% to 24%. The full analysis has LMA’s primal and cattle price charts.
