Total frozen egg stocks fell to 19.9 million pounds at the end of September, an 11-month low and 21% below the five-year average for that date. Breaking stock inventories recovered week on week but stayed under both last year and the five-year average, and frozen stocks seasonally keep shrinking into the end of November.
Depleted inventories normally read as bullish. The US egg market is not treating them that way. LEAP Market Analytics puts it down to near-term demand worries running high enough that processors want nothing on hand beyond what they need. Per capita availability of processed eggs is also tracking close to record territory, which takes the edge off the tightness.
Supply is comfortable. 580.2 million eggs were broken under federal inspection in the week ending 17 October, up 0.7% on the year, while breakings across the past six weeks were down 0.4%. Cumulatively for the year they remain 7.9% ahead of the 2025 pace, and dried egg production is running at least 40% above a subdued 2025 base.
Demand will decide 2027. Adjusted for seasonality, wholesale demand for frozen whole eggs sits below average against the 2010 to 2024 baseline, though it is holding up better than in shell eggs. Frozen whole egg prices are meanwhile underperforming graded shell egg markets relative to their historical relationship, and LEAP is moderately bullish on frozen eggs next year.
Avian influenza is still active: nearly 935,000 table egg-type layers in Illinois were depopulated last week.
Read the full US egg market analysis here.
