European butter is 28.1 percent cheaper than a year ago on the Vesper Price Index, and 4.9 percent lower over the past month as cream became slightly easier to find. Milk protein has moved the opposite way. SMP is up 56.1 percent over twelve months, and the gap between the two has narrowed sharply. In New Zealand, WMP and SMP are trading at the same level, something that happens once every few years.
EU milk output is up 3.82 percent from January to July and still growing, and the United States is sitting on a large butter surplus.
In our newly published EU Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our dairy analyst Jasper Endlich sets out how he expects butter to move through the quarter, and what could change the picture for the whole dairy complex.
Download the EU Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our EU Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
The report covers butter, SMP, WMP, Gouda, Cheddar and the whey and milk protein complex. For butter, it answers:
- Will European butter prices fall further in Q4 2026?
- Will EU butter drift sideways or drop sharply this quarter?
- Why is butter falling while SMP and milk protein rise?
- Which regions are still growing milk output, and which are producing less?
- How is the US butter surplus affecting world prices?
- What do recent GDT auctions say about milk fat?
- Why is European butter holding up better than US butter?
- What is holding the EU milk price up while supply grows?
- What would change the outlook for EU dairy prices?
