The US table egg flock eased lower between 1 September and 1 October, from just over 320.0 million head to a little under 319.1 million. That is unusual. The last time it happened in September was 2022, when two separate outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza claimed nearly 4.9 million hens. Before that, 2013.
Despite the setback, the flock was still 4.4% larger than a year earlier on 1 October, and September table egg production came to 7.93 billion, up 6.5% on last year. US egg production outpaced flock growth because of a burst of productivity: eggs per layer rose 1.3% year on year, the first month since June 2024 with growth of at least 1.0%. Producers returning to normal retirement schedules and flock rotations should bring the average age of the flock down, which LEAP Market Analytics expects to keep productivity relatively strong in the near term before it moderates again.
The more interesting number sits at the front of the supply chain. Egg-type chicks hatched in September came to 51.3 million, down 7.8% on last year, with cumulative hatchings for the year now 4.2% behind the 2025 pace. Set against larger hatchery supply flock inventories, that gap points to deliberate culling of fertilised eggs. The pipeline narrative of 2025 is reversing.
LEAP still sees room for the flock to grow into winter, but increasingly sees it capped around 325 million.
Read the full US egg market analysis here.
