US broiler expansion keeps slowing, though integrators have not yet pulled back enough to start a contraction. Chick placements totaled 189.7 million in the week to 3 October, 2.4% above the same week last year, while the rolling six-week total of 1.16 billion is up a more modest 0.5%, according to LEAP Market Analytics (LMA). Egg sets are running 1.5% above last year over the past six weeks, which points to similar growth in placements well into the fall.
LMA expects chicken production on a ready-to-cook basis to keep growing at 1.0% or better through the winter, but would be surprised to see that pace hold for the rest of 2027. It sees supply turning neutral to mildly supportive for prices next year.
Breast meat has held up better than the rest of the bird
Boneless skinless chicken breast prices have disappointed sellers this year, but LMA’s work shows they have held up better than the rest of the cutout. Comparing annual averages, breast meat in the low-to-mid $1.30s a pound (USDA) would normally line up with a weighted broiler cutout in the mid-$0.80s. This year the cutout is averaging almost exactly $0.80, which shows how much tenders and chicken wings have dragged on the complex.
Breast meat demand was weak in the July to September quarter, with one of the lowest seasonally adjusted readings of the past decade. Still, the slow pace at which prices are easing this deep into the fall suggests demand has improved slightly. Frozen breast meat stocks fell to 205.5 million pounds at the end of August, the smallest end-of-month total in exactly two years and 10% below a year earlier, though still slightly above the five-year average.
The 2027 view
With supply and demand both turning more supportive into 2027, LMA thinks it is reasonable to target a 15% to 20% increase in breast meat prices next year. Whole birds face a higher baseline from 2026, but LMA still sees a clear opening for prices to rise at least 5%. The full analysis includes LMA’s charts on placements, the cutout and cold storage.
