US Halloween chocolate sales dropped by $33 million in the nine weeks to 17 October, the biggest overall decline since 2023, according to NIQ data reported by Reuters. Milk chocolate took the hit while dark chocolate sales rose slightly, and shoppers increasingly chose smaller packs. US consumer sentiment hit a five-month low in October, and CPI reached a five-month high in September.
Confectioners are split on price. Mondelez plans selective price cuts in Europe to win back consumers, which could lift cocoa processing demand on a volume basis. Hershey does not expect to lower prices in 2027 and expects better volumes without them. Both see a 2025/26 surplus, Hershey at 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes and Mondelez at 500,000 tonnes, but Mondelez expects a 190,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27.
Cocoa futures stayed range-bound, with ICE Europe and ICE US both down about 3% on the week. Supply signals are mixed. ICE warehouse stocks rose again, but recent Ivory Coast arrivals have been weak, and exporters are reportedly paying up to 20% above the farmgate price to secure beans. The Coffee and Cocoa Council expects a main crop of 1.2 million tonnes against 1.5 million last season. In Ecuador, record rains continue, and exports may show the effect later in Q4, with a bigger impact likely in Q1 2027.
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