Cocoa news — Vesper

Unsold cocoa stock in Ivory Coast keeps a lid on prices

ICE cocoa futures fell 7-8.5% this week as high Ivory Coast arrivals and an uncertain unsold-stock overhang weigh on price.

Why cocoa futures are swinging 5% a day

Realized volatility in cocoa futures has topped 90%, with 5-6% daily swings now routine, as thin liquidity and a shrinking 2026/27 surplus keep traders on edge.

Cocoa grindings rise nearly 10%, but prices swing both ways

Global cocoa grindings rose 9.95% year on year, confirming demand is holding, but London and New York futures still fell nearly 9% on the data.

Why cocoa can jump 20% in two weeks and drop 7% in a day

Cocoa futures swung from a 19.6% weekly gain to a 7% one-day drop. Martijn Bron unpacks the volatility, the crop worries behind it, and what it means for buyers.

Cocoa jumps 14% in a day on El Niño supply risk

ICE cocoa futures gained more than 14% in one session and are up around 50% in a month as the market prices El Niño risk to West Africa and Ecuador.

Cocoa rallies more than 30%; deficit fears return for next season

cocoa has rallied more than 30% since Vesper's last report, recovering off its lows as the market turns its focus to next season's West African crop. New...

Cocoa jumps 11% as the market turns to El Niño supply risk

Cocoa prices snapped higher last week, with ICE London front-month July futures up 11% to £3,488 a tonne and ICE New York up 11% to $4,545 a tonne. After...

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter commodity markets of late spring. Futures barely moved over the prior fortnight, shrugging off both bearish news in the...

Ivory Coast arrivals outpace last season, pressuring cocoa

Cocoa prices fell over the past week as supportive West African weather and a jump in Ivory Coast arrivals shifted attention to near-term abundance. ICE EU...

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally and then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron attributes to the volatility of the...

EU cocoa futures post a 10% single-session gain as the Silly Season takes hold

EU cocoa futures rose 7% over the past week, closing at 3,153 GBP/t for the front-month July 2026 contract, while the most active September contract gained...

El Nino shifts Cocoa Week London from bearish demand to cautious supply concern

The mood at Cocoa Week London was not what most delegates arrived expecting. Industry participants came in focused on weak chocolate confectionery demand...

Cocoa rallies 30% in a week on short-covering and crop risk

EU cocoa front-month May 2026 futures closed up 34% on the week at 3,551 GBP/t, with gains spread across the curve rather than concentrated in the front....

Cocoa futures climb on El Niño concerns despite record surplus outlook

London July cocoa futures have risen by approximately 10% over the past two weeks, driven by FMCG buying tied to El Niño headlines, despite the 2025/26...

Cocoa prices find a higher floor on supply risk concerns

Cocoa prices have moved higher in recent sessions, with the front-month May 2026 ICE Europe contract closing 3.7% up at GBP 2,495/t. Market participants...

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, according to...

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Short covering ahead of grindings data The rally appears linked to short covering by funds ahead of major global grinding updates, potentially on...

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings are on track to remain well below historical levels through the 2025/26 season, with the latest data pointing to continued volume pressure...

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa prices rallied sharply at the end of March, with EU futures gaining 7% in a single session to close at £2,487/mt for the front month May 2026...

European butter prices correct sharply while SMP holds firm

European butter prices fell sharply last week, dropping from close to EUR 5,000/mt to as low as EUR 4,200/mt within a few days. The correction followed an...

Ivory Coast weighs cocoa pricing reform after beans pile up at ports

Ivory Coast is considering a reform of its cocoa marketing system that would make government-set farmer prices more responsive to international price...

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

The dramatic decline in cocoa prices over the past 12 months is beginning to have consequences for future supply. Cocoa farmers in Brazil say they expect to ...

Bakery market forecast 2026: flour, starches, eggs, dairy, vegetable oils, sugar, cocoa, nuts

Bakery procurement in H2 2026 is shaped by a mix of signals: some ingredients are softening, others are under renewed pressure, and a handful are in...

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers are navigating an ingredient landscape that looks very different today from where it started the year. Cocoa has come down sharply,...

Sports Nutrition ingredients forecast 2026: whey protein powders, eggs, sugar, nuts, cooa

The sports nutrition supply chain is under more pressure than it has been in years, and the drivers are no longer just about sports. Demand for whey...

Cocoa sector turmoil deepens in Ivory Coast and Ghana

Cocoa sector disruption in Ivory Coast and Ghana deepens as falling prices, unsold beans and payment delays strain farmers and buyers...

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

Ivory Coast has reclassified March cocoa production as mid-crop, sharply reducing farmgate prices to move unsold stocks. The bearish market...

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Explores how Middle East tensions and potential Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions could indirectly influence food commodity markets...

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

A shortage of offers is pushing butter and SMP prices higher across Europe, the US, and Oceania. Here's what's driving the moves and what...

Cocoa prices fall 35% in a month as West African supply overhang deepens

Cocoa prices have collapsed 35% over the past month and sit 70% below year-ago levels, as unsold bean inventories build in Ghana and Ivory...

Cocoa futures recover modestly as Ghana payment crisis leaves 150,000 mt stuck

Cocoa futures up slightly after sharp declines but farmers face payment crisis as Ghana and Ivory Coast struggle with defaults. Ghana holds...

Cocoa futures decline 30% in one month as speculators exit and grind data disappoints

Cocoa futures dropped 30% in one month as Q4 grind data showed 8.25% European decline and Ivory Coast faced trader defaults amid falling...

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa futures dropped 12% to 3,347 GBP/t as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana create supply bottlenecks. European...

Cocoa market seeks equilibrium after 50% price retreat

Cocoa futures trade in narrow range as market seeks equilibrium. Mild Harmattan conditions and above-average rainfall support West African...

Record cocoa short position reaches half a million metric tons

Managed money traders have built a half million metric ton short position in cocoa futures, a size that has historically hurt speculators...

EU chocolate inflation remains at multi-year highs despite cocoa price correction

European chocolate inflation remains near multi-year highs at 17.3% year-over-year even as cocoa prices fall 60% from peak, limiting...

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa prices fell over 9% this week as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported 5.3% decline in chocolate volumes...

EU proposes six-month grace period for cocoa deforestation law

European Union proposes six-month relief period for EUDR compliance instead of one-year delay, with simplified requirements for smallholder...

Chocolate makers adjust recipes as cocoa costs remain elevated

High cocoa prices drive chocolate recipe changes as companies use rice, oats, and sunflower seeds. McVitie's and KitKat brands lose...

Chocolate manufacturers plan price cuts after consumers reject 30% increases

Mondelez reports higher-than-expected demand elasticity for chocolate in Europe, with consumers pushing back against cumulative 30% price...

Chocolate demand proves more price-sensitive than expected as Mondelez reports consumer pushback

Mondelez reveals European chocolate demand elasticity of 0.7-0.8, surpassing industry expectations as cumulative 30% price increases test...

Cocoa demand destruction confirmed as Q3 grind numbers reveal global decline

Q3 cocoa grind numbers reveal significant declines across major processing regions, with European grind down 4.8%, Asia down 17%, and...

Cocoa prices fall 20% over past month as main crop expectations remain optimistic

Cocoa futures fall 20% in a month as West African main crop expectations remain optimistic. European Q3 grindings beat estimates.

How the EUDR delay is influencing cocoa prices and market structure

Discover how the EUDR delay, market structure shifts, and hedge fund shorts are influencing cocoa prices and procurement strategies.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters requiring complex tracking systems, though a possible...

Cocoa price discovery breaks down as structural problems persist

Cocoa markets struggle with broken price signals as Ghana's debt crisis deepens and Brazilian farmers face oligopolistic pricing pressure from processors.

Côte d'Ivoire cocoa crop faces weather challenges as rain distribution remains uneven

West African cocoa regions experience mixed rainfall patterns. Côte d'Ivoire sees uneven distribution while Ghana records...

Ivory Coast cuts cocoa export forecast as severe drought threatens global supply

Ivory Coast reduces cocoa export contracts to 1.2 million tonnes as severe drought and disease impact crop quality.

Cocoa: weak demand is priced in, supply problems not

Cocoa futures increase 10% on weather reports while confirmed demand destruction barely moves prices. Mondelez sales drop 3.4%...

Cocoa prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand destruction

Cocoa prices rise despite weak demand as West African production concerns outweigh processing declines | Market Analysis.

Cocoa markets face double pressure from weather relief and tariff uncertainty

Cocoa markets face volatility as West African weather improves but US tariff uncertainty persists.

Second half of 2025 opens with dairy market weakness as seasonal pressures mount

H2 2025 dairy market analysis shows widespread weakness despite mixed fundamentals. GDT auction results, butter-cream disconnect, and seasonal pressures.

Cocoa prices drop as Ghana boosts crop forecast, but weather risks loom large

New York cocoa falls to $9,000 as Ghana increases crop forecast 8.3%. Côte d'Ivoire arrivals up 5.7% but rainfall concerns persist in West Africa.

Cocoa market shows signs of recovery as West African rains improve crop prospects

Cocoa futures drop 15% as West African rains improve crop prospects. Analysis of supply recovery, smuggling challenges, and market outlook.

Cocoa markets find stability as weather shifts from drought to flood concerns

Cocoa futures find stability after volatile period, but excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raises new supply concerns.

Dairy markets face pricing pressures as butter strength contrasts with powder weakness

Latest dairy market analysis shows butter prices holding firm while milk powder markets weaken.

Cocoa market enters "silly season" as weather uncertainty and policy volatility create perfect storm

Cocoa market enters volatile "silly season" with 20-year low liquidity, weather uncertainty in West Africa, and policy disruptions.

Cocoa markets remain volatile as ICCO widens global supply deficit to 494,000 tons

ICCO expands cocoa deficit forecast amid West Africa crop quality concerns. Futures hit $10,974 before pullback.

Dairy markets surge as peak milk season ends, butter prices trigger buyer anxiety

Dairy markets rally as Northern Hemisphere exits peak milk production. Butter hits €7,500/mt amid supply fears. Raw milk, cream prices jump.

Cocoa market volatility continues: July futures swing nearly 19% in historic trading week

July cocoa futures hit $10,898 after 19% rally, then crashed 10%. Analysis reveals 20-year low liquidity, 3.5% demand drop, and West African supply gamble.

Cocoa market watch: Rally faces headwinds despite supply concerns

Latest cocoa market analysis shows futures retreating from 3-month highs despite quality issues in West Africa.

US Cocoa tariffs shake global markets: supply squeeze meets trade tensions

New US tariffs of up to 21% on cocoa imports collide with a 40% drop in Ivory Coast production, sending futures tumbling from $9,492 to $7,800.

Inside the Cocoa market: preventing a drop in demand amidst volatility

Discover key cocoa market trends, from supply shifts in Ivory Coast to changing chocolate demand and price volatility. Get insights for 2025.

Impact of O.N.I.L. volumes on global SMP market

Discover the impact of the O.N.I.L tender volumes on the global SMP markets. The EU Vesper Price Index (27/03/2024) for SMP rose to...

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