Cocoa futures are going nowhere with conviction. ICE Europe cocoa fell 1.7% over the past week to close at 4,153 GBP/t for the September contract, while ICE US cocoa dropped 3% to 5,759 USD/t. Big intraday swings keep showing up, but settlements keep landing close to where they started, a smooth surface over a market that can’t settle on a direction.
Positioning tells a similar story. Funds trimmed their net-short position in ICE US cocoa slightly to -13,613 lots in the week to August 18th, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data, while the ICE EU short grew a touch to -6,022 lots. Sugar and coffee markets saw more decisive speculative buying over the same week; cocoa didn’t.
Part of the hesitation is what’s coming next season. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals are closing in on 2 million tonnes, up 20% year on year, and the overall supply picture into the current season remains favourable. But early signs for the new season, which starts next week, point the other way: rainfall across Ivory Coast has run below normal over the past ten days, and recent pod counts suggest a below-average start to the main crop. Ghana has flagged a similar shift, projecting 2026/27 output near 650,000 tonnes, a roughly 13% drop from this season’s expected total, citing field surveys and pod counts.
A second unresolved question sits alongside it: EU deforestation rules due to take effect at the end of the year. Ivory Coast’s cocoa council says new digital ID cards will let farmers comply from the start of the new season in September, but reports on the ground vary, and estimates suggest around half of Nigeria’s cocoa farmers and a sizeable share of Ivory Coast’s crop may struggle to meet the traceability bar in time. If compliant supply falls short, current certified stock levels, still well above their 2024 lows, would be the first thing to feel it.
None of this has resolved into a clear price direction yet. The market is waiting on fresh pod counts and clearer signals from the season ahead before it’s willing to pick a side.
