US cocoa futures reopened from the Independence Day break with a gain of just over 14% on the ICE US September contract, and the December contract rose almost as much. Unlike recent rallies, the gains spread across the entire curve, a sign of broader conviction behind the move.
The supportive factor remains weather. The market is working out how to price the supply risk the current El Niño episode poses for both West Africa and Ecuador, which together cover two-thirds of global cocoa supply. London cocoa rose 11.9% on the week to close at £4,234/t for the front month, up 48% over the month, while ICE US futures gained 12.9% to $5,667/t, up 53% over the month.
Funds have been ditching their shorts as the weather risk built. The latest positioning data, covering the period to June 30, showed the net short at 7,756 lots, the smallest since Q3 2025, and Monday’s move has likely cut it further.
Current-season supply still looks comfortable: Ivory Coast arrivals reached 1,934kt by July 5, 19% ahead of last year. The market largely looked past those numbers, treating them as last season’s cocoa. Cocoa butter and cocoa mass followed beans higher, up 8% and 9% on the week, while cocoa powder sat out the rally entirely.
The next test comes quickly. Q2 grinding figures land next week, and a weak European number is the clearest downside risk for a market currently primed to respond sharply to bullish news. After a first half dominated by weak demand and strong supply, 2026 could end up a game of two very different halves. Vesper’s full cocoa analysis covers fund positioning, origin pricing, and the outlook in detail.
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