Cocoa is cheaper than it was a year ago. For a European buyer, cocoa butter is 20.0 percent lower over twelve months and Ivorian beans landed in Europe 14.3 percent lower. In the week to 23 September ICE European cocoa fell 7 percent to GBP 3,998/t for the December 2026 contract, back to levels last seen in July.
The exchanges look comfortable. Inventories have held at higher levels, and speculators increased their net short position to 18,369 lots in the week ending 15 September. At origin the picture is less settled. Ivory Coast held its main crop farmgate price at 1,200 CFA/kg, more than 50 percent below the 2025/26 main crop price, and farmers are protesting and holding unsold beans. Ghana’s cocoa buyers are trying to recover an estimated 300 million dollars in arrears, and Ivorian growing regions have been drier since the season began in September.
Q3 grinding figures are due shortly and the EUDR deadline is approaching. In our newly published Chocolate Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our analyst Justine White reads the balance between the two sides and what it means for cover.
Download the Chocolate Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our Chocolate Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
Cocoa sits alongside sugar, dairy, oils and nuts in the report. For cocoa, it answers:
- Will cocoa prices go down in Q4 2026?
- What is the cocoa price forecast for 2027?
- Which way would the supply risks at origin push cocoa prices?
- How will the Ivory Coast farmgate price affect cocoa availability?
- Can Ghana finance its cocoa season, and what happens if it cannot?
- Why is cocoa powder rising while cocoa butter falls?
- What will the Q3 cocoa grinding figures tell buyers?
- Is the EUDR deadline priced into cocoa?
- How do weather risks in Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria and Sulawesi affect supply?
- Should buyers hold cocoa cover in a falling market?
- Where does Vesper’s AI forecast see European and US cocoa prices by Q2 2027?
