Cocoa futures closed below 4,000 GBP/t for the first time since July. ICE Europe fell 7% over the past week to 3,998 GBP/t on the front-month December 2026 contract, while ICE US dropped 8% to 5,402 USD/t. Funds pushed further onto the short side, adding 4,631 contracts to take the net short to -18,369 lots in the week to September 15, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report. Vesper’s technical read stayed bearish on near-term prospects.
Away from the exchange, Ivory Coast has a dispute it has not settled. The government held the main crop farmgate price at 1,200 CFA/kg, the same level it set for the mid-crop in March, and more than 50% below the price set for the 2025/26 main crop. Main crop beans normally fetch more than mid-crop supply because quality and bean size are better, so farmers had expected something closer to 1,500 or 2,000 CFA/kg. Protests have continued since the announcement, and farmers who held unsold cocoa waiting for an increase now have to choose between selling and waiting for another signal.
That keeps an unknown volume outside the official supply chain, though there is no perception of imminent tightening, since output itself appears to have been sufficient. It does make the season’s first numbers harder to read. Ivory Coast moved the start of the main crop forward by a month, which leaves a year-on-year comparison of September arrivals meaningless. Exporters reported 16,000 tonnes in the week to September 20, taking the new season total to 20,500 tonnes, and the ramp-up may run late enough that the market looks past arrivals until later in October. Growing regions have also been drier than usual since the season opened, and a continued lack of rain into October could pose a risk to the end of the main crop.
Ghana’s problem is cash, not weather
Ghana has not yet announced the start of its new crop or finalized its farmgate price, though indications point to a level above Ivory Coast’s. Its harder problem is financing. Licensed buyers are trying to recover more than $300 million in arrears, and without liquidity they may struggle to buy, which would push volume through informal channels. The International Finance Corporation said this week that it will support a cocoa financing program with Absa Bank Ghana, which could keep licensed buyers funded through the purchasing season.
Elsewhere, drought struck Sulawesi during a critical stage for Indonesia’s crop, with yields expected to suffer and the rainy season forecast to start late. Ecuador exported 263,137 tonnes of cocoa and cocoa products from January to July, 8.3% below last year, which is worth watching as origins outside West Africa carry more weight in the global balance.
Demand is the other half of it. Cocoa powder held firm over the past month while cocoa butter and cocoa mass ratios eased. Ivory Coast grindings reported by GEPEX rose 21.3% year on year in August, at 47,646 tonnes. The Q3 grinding figures due over the next three weeks will show whether cheaper beans are pulling European demand back, or whether reformulation and smaller pack sizes have changed what a price fall can do.
