cocoa has rallied more than 30% since Vesper’s last report, recovering off its lows as the market turns its focus to next season’s West African crop. New York September futures are on track for their strongest month since late 2024, up around 20% versus mid-June. London ran with it, the September contract gaining about 16% on the week.
There was no single trigger. A friendly run of news did the work: worries about West African pod set, bullish notes from American investment banks, Managed Money covering short positions, origins well sold and quiet, and market technicals along the way.
The crop story is the one to watch. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg see Ivory Coast’s next harvest falling about 20%, to an average estimate of 1.8 million mt from roughly 2.2 million this year, with pod development described as the worst for the time of year in decades. Heavy rain through April and May has also raised the risk of black pod disease. Citigroup and Marex now expect the global market to swing back into deficit in 2026/27, where Rabobank still sees a surplus, only a much smaller one than this year. Citi went further, flagging scope for New York futures to reach USD 5,000/mt within three months and USD 6,000 within a year if El Niño bites.
Origin has gone quiet to match. Ivory Coast has paused sales of 2026/27 export contracts, having already sold about 1.15 million mt, while its crop-forecasting teams report back, with sales expected to resume in early July. Ivory Coast and Ghana, meanwhile, agreed to open the new season in September and to keep working toward a jointly set farmer price.
The counterweight is demand and the current-year surplus, on which El Niño has no effect, plus the speed of the move itself. The rally has been fierce and markets rarely travel in a straight line. The next demand test comes with Q2 grind numbers in mid-July.
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