The US broiler industry is in the middle of one of the more aggressive expansionary cycles of the past quarter-century, and it is now big enough that the other animal protein categories are paying attention.
Ready-to-cook broiler production was up 4.6% year-on-year in July and is running 4.2% ahead of last year’s pace through the first seven months, at 28.77 billion pounds. According to LEAP Market Analytics, there has not been a full calendar-year increase of at least 4.0% since 2004, and only three years in the past two decades have topped 3.0%, the last being 2019.
The momentum is definitely slowing, though. Broiler chicks hatched in July came to 887 million, only 0.7% above last year, and weekly placements more recently point the same way. Productivity is picking up some of the slack: improving livability is on track to lift head counts by at least 0.5% this year, and slightly heavier finishing weights pad volume a little further. On that basis ready-to-cook production could still run either side of 2.0% ahead of last year through fall even with hatchings up just 1.0%. LEAP projects growth slows to 0.7% in 2027.
Exports are not clearing the extra meat. US broiler shipments have declined in each of the past five years, and while cumulative volumes through June are 0.7% ahead of the 2025 pace, that trails the rate at which production is rising by a comfortable margin. The export share of production keeps shrinking, so more of the bird stays home. Per capita availability of broiler meat is projected to rise 3.5% this year to 75.5 pounds on a boneless basis, 19% above where it stood in 2016 and the third-largest annual increase of this century.
Wholesale prices reflect it. LEAP’s weighted average cutout estimate has been tracking in the mid-to-upper $0.70s per pound, down from more than $1.10 around this time last year. The damage is uneven: the front half of the bird has suffered disproportionately compared to the back half, with tenders and wings acting as an anchor on the complex.
Two things now sit on either side of the outlook. The current flight to value among consumers should benefit chicken, and LEAP is projecting stronger demand in this space next year. Feed input markets are the counterweight, and corn in particular has suddenly become a pressing concern.
