Significant variations have emerged among European countries in terms of milk production. While the latest data indicates that EU28 milk production has increased by 0.98% compared to the previous year, the growth rates differ substantially across individual countries.
EU28 milk production comparison Dec ‘22 to Dec ‘21
Since September, most countries in North-West Europe have reported positive figures, while Southern European nations have struggled to keep up. Germany and the Netherlands are leading when it comes to total volumes and production growth, while France and Italy are dragging down the EU28 production figures.
Poland is a notable exception, demonstrating that milk production growth is possible, and high pay-out prices have benefited its farmers. However, France has the lowest pay-out price among all countries. As a result, French farmers are leaving the industry, and the French dairy herd is shrinking, leading to negative YoY production growth.
Side note: Discover all dairy commodities covered by Vesper.
It is essential to consider the impact of weather on milk production. Temperatures across Europe have risen compared to previous years, which, when combined with higher precipitation in North-Western Europe and lower rainfall in Southern Europe, partially explains the difference in milk production growth.
In summary, while European milk production is generally up, significant disparities in growth rates exist among countries. The influence of weather conditions and pay-out prices on milk production cannot be ignored and must be taken into account when examining the variations among European countries.