European cheese markets have continued to soften in recent weeks. With Q3 coverage mostly behind them, almost all buyers have stepped back to the sidelines, the bids still out there sit notably lower, and sellers are finding volumes harder to move. The tone is bearish. What is holding prices up is that there is not much supply left to sell, which should prevent a steep fall once buyers head off on holiday.
The pressure is not uniform across the varieties. Cheddar is moving sideways while the bottom of its range slips lower, weighed down by Irish, UK, and Eastern European curd production and stiff competition from US Cheddar in export markets. US Cheddar is trading in a competitive 1.50 to 1.60 USD/lb range, and while overall US cheese output rose 1.7% year-on-year in April, Cheddar production fell 3.52% as producers favoured other types. Gouda has drifted lower, with some July bids already down near 3,200 EUR/mt; stock pressure is building but remains manageable for most, leaving the more exposed producers to move volumes cheaper. Emmental is trading in line with other cheeses, which is actively discouraging fresh production and could slowly restore its usual premium once French output declines after June.
Mozzarella is the most balanced of the four. Buyers keep switching to it through summer, higher prices pull in more production, and both domestic and export sales are holding up better than elsewhere. In the US, fast production cycles and cream as a co-product keep output high and prices at a discount to Europe.
Vesper expects a sideways-to-softer path through the summer, with the EU’s export competitiveness central to how far prices fall.
For the full dairy market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3087?commodity=dairy