European white sugar has risen 23.7 to 30.4 percent over the past three months across the West, South and East EU benchmarks of the Vesper Price Index, most of it during the August rally in world sugar. DG AGRI now forecasts EU output at 13.4 million metric tons for 2026/27, close to 20 percent below last season, with ending stocks falling to 2.32 million tons from 3.06 million. After two months of exceptionally hot and dry weather, the 5 October campaign note puts France at 97 days against a six-season average of 122.
Imports offer less relief than usual. Of roughly 2.41 million tons of sugar eligible to enter the EU, we estimate only about 766,000 tons would arrive at today’s European prices.
Even so, European values have stayed relatively sticky, with exports starting to look more attractive than internal sales. In our newly published EU Sugar Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our analyst Justine White weighs the shortfall against that stickiness quarter by quarter into 2027, alongside our AI forecast.
Download the EU Sugar Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our EU Sugar Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
- Will EU sugar prices keep rising in Q4 2026?
- What is the European white sugar price forecast for 2027?
- Why can’t imports fill Europe’s sugar shortfall?
- Which EU countries have the weakest beet yields this year, and which are above average?
- Is leftover 2025/26 stock enough to cushion the shortfall?
- Why have European sugar prices stayed sticky despite the poor crop?
- Will world raw sugar prices follow European prices higher?
- How are rain and ethanol diversion in Brazil affecting sugar supply?
- Can Thailand and India help cover Europe’s shortfall?
- What do fund positions in NY11 sugar mean for prices?
- Will EU sugar beet area recover in 2027?
- How do energy costs and El Niño affect the sugar outlook?
