Container shipping is under more pressure than at any point since the Red Sea crisis, and the squeeze is coming from several directions at once, according to Shypple’s bi-weekly snapshot. Space is tight, every major carrier has announced a June peak-season surcharge of $500 to $1,200 per container, and bunker fuel costs are running 68% higher than in February.
Several forces are stacking up together. Carriers are cancelling sailings to keep space scarce and rates firm, with 47 blank sailings expected across major East-West routes between June 1 and July 5, a 7% cancellation rate. Shippers are rushing to move cargo before July 1, when the quarterly bunker adjustment factor resets sharply higher and a new UK emissions levy begins. South American soybean exports and other seasonal flows are adding demand, and vessels are still routing around the Cape of Good Hope, which keeps capacity structurally tight.
The peak-season surcharges land first on Asia to Europe and Mediterranean lanes. CMA CGM is charging $1,000 per 40ft from June 1, with a $1,200 level expected from June 15, and Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Maersk and ONE have all published their own. MSC is taking a different route, targeting an all-in rate of up to $6,000 per 40ft container from Asia to North Europe, roughly double the current spot.
Fuel is the common thread. Bunker costs are up 68% since February on tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil supply. There was one piece of relief: Dutch diesel fell about 10 cents a litre this week on ceasefire hopes, and a deal could ease surcharges over time. Air freight is tightening too, with global volumes up 4% in April but jet fuel up 121% year on year and Middle Eastern carriers down 18.2%.
The practical message for shippers is to book early. Space, not price, is the scarce commodity right now, and when it opens up it does not stay open for long.
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