The world’s two big egg markets are pulling apart. In Europe, prices are still easing from their spring peak, but the decline is slowing and a floor may be within reach. In the US, the market has turned firmer for the first time in weeks as stocks tighten and demand picks up.

In Europe, standard egg prices have fallen steadily since their late-March peak, with caged eggs down 7.58% week-on-week and barn eggs off 8.33% in the retail segment; organic dropped nearly 12%. Recovering production from newly placed flocks, a wave of cheap imports and the seasonal summer slowdown are all weighing. But the pace of decline eased in some markets last week, hinting a bottom is getting closer. Certified and alternative eggs are moving the other way: KAT-certified and free-range supply stays tight on the lasting effects of avian influenza and Newcastle Disease, widening the gap to standard eggs. In Poland, almost 4.9 million laying hens have been culled in the first half of 2026, and a record European heatwave is now adding stress, with mass poultry mortality reported across Brittany and Pays de la Loire.

The US is the firmer story. Wholesale shell-egg prices have begun to rise after a weeks-long standoff broke in sellers’ favour, with USDA caged white eggs up 2.68% and cage-free climbing more than twice as fast. Shell-egg stocks have fallen to their lowest since November, the most bullish supply signal in months, while demand is improving on stronger retail movement. Record-high beef prices are an added support, nudging foodservice operators to feature eggs as a cheaper protein.

Egg derivatives are lagging the shell-egg moves on both sides of the Atlantic. European powders are steady on comfortable processor stocks, and liquids have levelled out. One structural shift to watch: US sports-nutrition makers are already swapping expensive whey powder for egg white powder, which should support albumen demand over time, though European manufacturers have been slower to reformulate.

Vesper sees Europe’s cage and barn prices still bearish near term but closing in on a floor, with Spain potentially marking the turn as tourist demand builds from July. In the US, tight stocks and firm demand point higher, though maturing flocks and seasonal softness should keep any rally in check.

For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3143?commodity=food-ingredients